A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
